By most accounts, Erie’s economy has held up fairly well in recent months when compared with other parts of the country.

The low real-estate prices — and the fact that Erie’s economy isn’t too reliant on financial services — has helped temper some of the shocks that are being felt elsewhere.

But the plunge in manufacturing in September has me concerned.

If manufacturing orders truly are trending down and if money is tightening up throughout the economy, Erie won’t be immune from this downturn for much longer.

Penn State Behrend economist Jim Kurre has said many times that Erie tends to follow the rest of the country into recessions — and then follow on the rebound, too.

If that pattern holds true this time around, tougher times could be coming.