Outside Erie

20 Responses to “Double the Brain Drain?”

1. Wizo
   August 25th, 2008 at 3:08 pm

   in Florida’s “Who’s Your City?” (must read for any elected official/economic development figure-head), he also lists Erie as a ‘great buy’ city for Seniors in small regions. I believe the only time Erie is mentioned in the entire book. Considering both varriables, wouldn’t it be wise to market Erie as a great place to raise a family? I hear that all the time, but never see it anywhere in writing.

2. Jim Russell
   August 25th, 2008 at 3:15 pm

   I can cite a number of second-hand examples of this kind of migration and I think the trend has considerable upside for places such as Erie. But I’m not convinced that the flow will ever become too significant.

   What about people with grandchildren in multiple locations? How about real estate prices and cost of living differences? Home equity in a Rust Belt home won’t get you much in “more exciting cities.”

   My main quibble is with the article Rich uses as support for his predicted trend. The piece in the NYT is about a second home near the college of a child. Will the young adult stay on after graduating or return there with grandkids in tow? Not in Middlebury or Hanover.

   The irony is that Rich is highlighting a migration that has people leaving the big, diverse, and cool city (i.e. NYC) and heading for the sticks (i.e. Vermont). Wealthy soon-to-be retirees taking up residence in Vermont or New Hampshire is nothing new. I doubt Vermont economists are all that excited about the trend.

   I don’t see how the story is any sort of harbinger of a boomer exodus from Rust Belt cities already struggling with brain drain.

3. Mike
   August 25th, 2008 at 4:39 pm

   I can see that happening to an extent, but at the same time I also think Erie is attractive for retirees due to the low cost of housing. A person living in a $400,000 house in California may want to sell and live in the quieter confines of Erie in a $200,000 house, and net a $200,00 profit. It happens.

   I also don’t many people in the boomer age range are going to want to go from a town like Erie to a bustling Metropolis like NYC or DC (but some might). If you haven’t lived in a place like that earlier in your life, I imagine it would be tough to do so once your near senior citizen age.

4. bojosmom
   August 26th, 2008 at 12:17 am

   Do not underestimate the longing for the company and day-to-day interaction of grandparent with grandchildren. There are many many of my fifty and sixty something friends who~ given the opportunity ~will relocate to be nearer to their chldren and grandchildren. The Baby boomer generation is more well traveled and are more active than the previous generation. I think they are less attached to their current environs and with many fast approaching retirement the migration may be afoot. We are considering just such a move but must wait to see where our son settles after military service and honestly are in the midst of caring for an elderly parent that holds us here for now. Our son wants to return to Erie with his family if the career opportunity arises and the economy is favorable, but they have a few more years before they will face that decision as he just re-enlisted for another term of service. I will be watching this trend with interest. Thanks for the information on the topic.

5. Jeremy
   August 26th, 2008 at 8:00 am

   I know my family (grandparents and parents especially) are excited that we are committed to remaining in Erie. It truly is a great place to start and raise a family. While I know that stats show the brain drain and a potential for the “double brain drain”, but I look at the positive for those of us in the 20’s, 30’s and 40’s who will have many opportunities as the retirees move on and our classmates also migrate. I think Erie will continue to be my home…at least until my kids look to move elsewhere.

6. George Vietze
   August 26th, 2008 at 8:09 am

   Family and community ties are certainly a significant factor considered in making a decision concerning which community people chose to reside. My observation is that people who chose to live in the Erie area or who have lived in the Erie area in the past prefer a smaller community lifestyle compared to larger, more urban, cosmopolitan areas. People for example who like places like New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Atlanta and enjoy the excitement of City life with active, vibant restaurant and club life and 24-7 activiites would most likely not prefer to live in Erie, Pa. or any other smaller, rural community. Conversely, people who shy away from that lifestyle and prefer a small community could be attracted to a City like Erie, Pa. provided Erie is re-vitalized to its potential. More and more people who have left Erie who were acustomed to a small community but left for what they perceived to be a more vibrant lifestyle found out the reality ,that once used to a rural community the hustle, bustle, concrete, traffic intense, smoggy air, crowded larger cities may not be for everyone.

   I moved to Scottsdale and Phoenix in 1969, Scottsdale was a small beautiful community that now has grown expodentially since then and the traffic situation now is out of control as the community is no longer a small community. As the air gets worse, the expense rises and the traffic and congestion expand, more and more people are looking for alternatives.

   Erie for a lot of people is a rare find. A small community with a balanced economic base with many, many cultural and entertainment attractions yet has a great supply of water, clean air, rural community lifestyle and the real estate is much more affordable than many other communities. Once the word spreads about the re-development in Erie and the opportunities to live, work, and invest in this new growth
   potential ,Erie will be even more attractive to people in other areas.

   My girlfriend from La Jolla, California has recently retired after 30 years of teaching school and is considering moving to Erie and during the winter months traveling and visiting her children in Hawaii. Erie is very attractive to her because she can establish her ties to the educational community, its proximity to Chautauque area and Institute, good hospitals, and various attractions and cultural activities. It will become more attractive as the blighted neighborhoods are redeveloped, the Bayfront becomes more developed and generally the City is upgraded to its potential. Erie is headed in the right direction and in my opinion, with the State of Pa. interest in increasing its cash flow from the gambling, the State will help Erie invest in re-developing the area.

   Erie may not be for everyone, and that is a good thing, a small economically vibrant community with clean water, air, less traffic,
   affordable lifestyle with a rural community lifestyle works for a lot of us.

   It looks to me that the community leaders are working hard to re-develop our neighborhoods, upgrade our attractiveness to future companies and residents and up-grade the lifestyle of the NEW ERIE.

7. john morris
   August 26th, 2008 at 9:07 am

   I think if this was going to be a big trend that it would be apparent already. I’ve seen a little of that in Pittsburgh– but as people said a big factor is cost, selling an average home here doesn’t get one the money to move to NY, or San Diego or many other places.There probably is a bit of income sorting going on, with poorer people staying or moving back and some wealthy people leaving. Also the downtown Pittsburgh apartment market is starting to attract “snowbirds” who fly south in the winter.

   You also have a reverse trend of kids comming back to take care of parents and deciding to stay.

8. Jim
   August 26th, 2008 at 11:38 am

   As the Grapes of Wrath illustrated, population shifts follow employment more than any other factor. Most, not all of course, are where they can find employment.

   Many young graduates are leaving Erie to find employment. Not because they don’t like Erie, but because they cannot get a return on their education investment here. That pace seems to be accelerating, as area colleges turn out even more graduates, with fewer positions available for them here. We are, and have been for decades, a net exporter of education.

   I remember sitting at a business association meeting several years ago, listening to members of the education community espouse the benefit of being an exporter of education. At the end of a program, came a speaker from, I believe, Behrend who made the point that since so much of education, including higher education, is public not private education being a net exporter of education shows a community that undervalues education. That point has always stuck with me, and I believe time has proven it accurate. As our education community has continued to grow, the brain drain has also continued to not only grow, but accelerate due to the declines in other private employment opportunities. Another factor in that equation is that the lack of growth, insures that the cost of government continues to grow at a faster pace than the inflation rate.

   It seems to me that what we need is to find a way that places a higher local value on education, which allows a higher percentage of our graduates to find employment opportunities here.

9. George Vietze
   August 26th, 2008 at 1:55 pm

   Jim, I agree with you that it would be better if a higher percentage of local graduates found acceptable employment in this area.

   I don’t have the background to market this area to manufacturing companies or other companies because I don’t know enough about the political contraints or other economical factors that would effect a companies decision to move to this area. My experience in real estate in general leads me to believe that if this area is perceived to be a good place to live, work, play and raise a family this should lead to more people wanting to move here, more graduates wanting to stay here accepting a little less in employment off-set by the cost and standard of living. As this area re-develops its neighborhoods, becomes a safer community to live, up-grades its community attractions, has a viable airport, develops it’s Bayfront with shops, theme parks, restaurants it should attract more people and become more economically viable.

   Places like Phoenix, San Diego, Portland who had terrible downtown viability and with improvements in safety, construction of major shopping attractions, new restaurants, developed water features, new or newer ball parks these Cities have attracted more residents, more companies, more corporate headquarters and generally increased the quality of life and tax bases to where they are considered a good place to live.

   I believe Erie is on that path. I wish people could visualize better, but I see the future to include a developed Bayfront, condominiums overlooking the Bayfront, new Hotels, new shopping, hopefully some type of theme park (San Diego has Sea Port Village), you already have the Convention Center. Cruises to Canada and other places, maybe even gambling cruises. Little Italy already has a Specific Area Study with plans including a neighborhood Piazza or open, park-like plaza with seating, fountains, plantings as a community gathering center,
   more retail is being sought like restaurants, bakeries, shop and more importantly a grocery store is part of the proposed plan. The first phase of Parade Street improvements from 6th. St. to 15th. Street is out to bid. The development of the Bayfront, Little Italy and Parade Street will not be easy and will take time, but the City is making the effort, one step at a time and moving forward with these goals. I can visualize a new and different Erie over the next 10 years. The area needs to market this potential nationally and our local representatives need to raise their marketing efforts up a couple of notches and if that means raising the salaries of our marketing teams and becoming more professional ,we need to step up to the plate now, not after $100’s of millions of dollars of a major convention center and other up-grades of our attractions such as the Tullio Center and other proposed re-development projects go under-marketed and someone call for another study to find out why. Erie is growing, some of these investments are already developed, more are planned, Erie has moved up a notch and now requires state of the art, full blown, national marketing skills. Unless these developments on the Bayfront are planned and the Convention Center marketed at the level that these types of centers are marketed nationwide it will take a lot longer to be viable. It does not require and expensive PKF (expensive report by a well known marketing feasibility company) to realize that Erie already has a convention center and needs supporting uses like shops, restaurants, viable yacht clubs, theme parks, hotels in close proximity,
   good access to these facilities to become viable. Erie needs the business community along with our political leaders to come together and do the necessary planning to assure that these areas are addressed in the professional manner that $100’s of millions of dollars
   of community investment require and demand.

   I believe this would make the job easier for our Economic Development organizations, who aslo may need to raise their level of marketing and the combination of the two efforts combined with the undertaking of the comprehensive planning effort that is talked about, should put Erie on track to move to the future on more solid ground.

10. James A
    August 26th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    The chances of my parents leaving Erie and coming to live with me in Virginia are slim to none. They’re still working, first of all. And even when they retire, the only people they know in VA are me, my wife, and my mother-in-law. Not that they could afford a house down here anyway.

11. Dale Hannah
    August 26th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    Jim, I understand and agree with what you pointed out regarding most of the graduates from our local colleges leaving town to find a decent paying career. My question would be, just for the sake of a broader discussion; Has anyone done a study to determine how many of the graduates are actually Erie people, and how many are from out of town?
    The schools should be able to pull this demographic up in a second.
    Now we can calculate how many Erie brains we are really losing, and how many outsiders are just not electing to stay here. Anyone who comes here to attend college from elsewhere, is a finished product that has provided jobs and income for the years they were here, so they can’t be considered as a loss, in any circumstance.

12. Jim Russell
    August 26th, 2008 at 3:39 pm

    Even places that have more jobs than people to fill them lose a large percentage of graduates. Trying to retain local graduates is the legacy of an economy that no longer exists. That said, manufacturing-centric cities do tend to undervalue a college education.

13. Jim
    August 26th, 2008 at 4:08 pm

    Dale I believe Dr. Kurre at Behrend has done some work in that area. And I believe it indicates that we bring more outsiders in for their education than we educate from here. That was one of the reasons I suspect behind the education community espousing the benefit of being an exporter of education, because they viewed it as bringing dollars from outside the county, into Erie /County to be spent here. They were essentially viewing themselves as a mega service business, and focusing on their economic impact, along side medical provides, which is also a net exporter, when you look at the specialists and sub-specialists practicing in the Erie area.

    The point the last speaker left with me however, is that we need to be offering more than low end service industry jobs supporting transitory buyers of other services, if we wanted to create wealth as a community.
    I have had personal experience with young grads, some with masters degrees in business, tell me that the low end service industry in Erie is offering near minimum wage, part time employment. This would include hospitality, banking, and to some degree insurance. I personally know a kid with a master’s degree working at a local bank, part time, for just over minimum wage, trying to find full time employment with benefits that would allow him to stay in the area. I know another Behrend graduate, I think undergrad business degree, offered a part time job at one of Scott’s operations for under $10.00 per hour, with no benefits. One has already left Erie, and the other is considering leaving.

    To support some of the development that George writes about, we also have to have wealth creation within the community. To do that we have to get the community wage rates up to at least the national average, from the current 20% deficit. That cannot be done with low end service jobs, and we don’t have enough high end service opportunities yet to fill the voids left by losses in manufacturing.

    At one time, we had expected high tech research and development, and bio / chemical engineering to be the catalyst. Especially when the marketing on Knowledge Park took place. However, it hasn’t panned out the way it was marketed. A lot of that has to do with Pennsylvania;s business climate, to be sure, but at the same time I have not seen much of an effort to attract anything in the wealth creating arena. What I have seen is a lot of low end service jobs, very few if any providing family sustaining wage rates, and decent benefit packages. Manufacturing is continuing to carry a very significant load of our economy, without which we would be suffering far more than we are today. Yet local manufacturing, despite their claims of needing better educated prospective employee pools to draw from, have not done much in terms of hiring to support the educational facilities we already have, especially from their entry level wage scales. Some fear that a community college will simply discount the earning value of higher education even more.

    There is a lot within the service industry that could be within the high tech field, like state of the art automated warehousing and distribution. We haven’t targeted that market, despite our geographic location. When you compare the logistics here, compared to a Carlisle, I submit on a percapita basis we have missed a big boat.

14. Peter Panepento
    August 26th, 2008 at 9:26 pm

    Great points, Jim.

    Jim Kurre has done some research in the brain drain area, for sure, though that study is now at least 3-4 years old. I’ll contact him to see if he has any more current research on the topic.

    The points you make about the type of jobs being created is also dead on.

    I remember traveling to Grand Rapids, Mich., several years ago to report on that community’s economic development effort — an effort that at the time was being held up as a model for Erie’s.

    One part of that effort really stuck out at me — the community refused to offer incentives to or even aggressively attract any companies that did not provide wages that were higher than the national per capita income level.

    That is a smart policy for Erie to consider — and it would help combat the disparities that you discuss.

15. George Vietze
    August 27th, 2008 at 4:48 am

    Specific suggestions to our political leaders as to what Erie can do to attract better paying jobs is a lot more production than simply stating the obvious,that Erie or any area that does not have enough better paying jobs. Updating the facts on what are the current demographics regarding the types of employment breakdown that currently exists in this market and then specific recommendations as to what can or should be done to attract these better paying jobs.

    Obviously, re-developing our buildings and our neighborhoods and up-grading our attractions and entertainment facilities, our cultural facilities such as museums and other facilities will go a long way toward attracting new residents and companies. Stepping up our marketing programs of our representative groups such as the Chamber of Commerce and our newly structured Manufacturing and Business Association and increasing all our efforts necessary to help elevate our status to first class national marketing reputation of our Convention Center and the initiation of a Comprehensive Master Plan that not only has widespread political support but involves the core of the community , will be a huge step in the right direction for helping Erie and this area to become a Great City on a Great Lake with a great Life Style!

16. Jim
    August 27th, 2008 at 6:36 am

    George I have to respectfully disagree. No high tech warehousing or distribution company is going to locate in Erie because we have a nice convention center and friendly bar tenders.

    We have to present a business plan that makes good business sense to them, including things like overhead costs, adequate transportation and truck routes, etc. They won’t locate here if they can’t do it profitably, no matter how nice it might be to live here.

17. George Vietze
    August 27th, 2008 at 9:11 am

    Jim, I am not disagreeing with you when it comess to the demographics of enticing manufacturing or high tech companies to this area. I don’t know the comprehensive list of requirements that this area requires to attract this type of employment. If the Chamber of Commerce or the Manufacturing and Business Association does not lobby the leaders of this area to provide incentives to attract these types of businesses and companies maybe we as residents should lobby the representatives and leaders ourselves. Maybe you and others should come up with a comprehensive list of the items you feel need to be addressed.

    You either missed my point, I was commenting on re-vitalizing of our neighborhoods, improving the safety of our neighborhoods, up-grading of our attractions, professionally marketing our Convention Center,
    all these activities up-grades our lifestyle, attracts more visitors to our area, that benefit our hotels and retail outlets and shops and adds to the attractiveness and economic viability of our area and making it more appealing for people to want to move and work in this area.

    The general information I have on the Knowledge Park area is that the demand of that project is very healthy according to a recent article.
    Maybe it did not attract all that it hoped it would but generally is a successful location. Maybe I should visit that project like I did with Little Italy and downtown and Parade Street and get the details.

    What makes GE Transportation extremely profitable in this area in spite of the constraints and limitations that you say keep out other companies? Could it be adapting to the current global economy and recognizing that higher productivity and new technology and having a positive trade balance with places like China, India and other places
    and selling more to them than we purchase from them, instead of just complaining about jobs that have left this area for other places.
    GE’s example of staying in Erie, investing in current educational programs to train and re-train our work force, to me is a better example of facing the realities of this new world than living in the PAST and wondering why can’t we be like we were 20-50 years ago. Maybe as we up-grade our City, places like GE will expand in water projects and energy and because we are upgrading our way of life and standard of living more people will want to live here and WORK here.

    Did you ever consider that we might be BETTER than we were, just different demographics as we adjust to the NOW world. I am sorry for the manufacturing jobs that have left the area. Most of us have felt the effects of the changing economic world, a lot of us in the real estate world have had to make adjustments in changing economies either you make the adjustments or live in the past as the world moves on.
    We are making progress in Erie as we upgrade and re-vitalize our City
    and our attractions. Our medical community is expanding our educational facilities are up-grading, our tourist business is growing, it is now up to our manufacturing business to follow in the path of companies like GE, and keep up with the changing economy—or not-that is also a choice.

    The free market system works in Erie also, the existing investments
    made in Erie by GE, the medical community, the Universities, Casino & Race Track, the incentive the State of Pa. has in increasing its cash flow with gambling profits , will protect their interest in moving our economy forward, so Erie will continue to grow.

    We all agree that better paying jobs will help our community but we need help from the people mostly effected by those jobs to step up and joint the campaign to enhance the ability to attract those jobs. Wishing they were here and complaining that they are not here is not sufficient
    to attract new jobs.

18. Jim
    August 27th, 2008 at 10:24 am

    Maybe John Kanzius’ project will provide the incentive to address some of these issues, as his project has the potential to be exactly the kind of project that the community should be getting behind. It has the potential, if successful to provide manufacturing, sales, medical, distribution, logistics, and all kinds of other economically positive employment opportunities. That the community was so late to the table in attempting to be part of this is an indication of the required change necessary for planning and marketing. That project it a prime example of the kind of cutting edge technology development that was envisioned with Knowledge Park, but not followed up on. Instead, it became just another business park, with publishing, and a relocation of some existing insurance service jobs.

    As for lobbying efforts, I talk to people about this all the time. But what I tend to find is those who are interested are too busy, and those who have the time and interest have no influence. To me its more a question of finding dedicated resources, setting an achievable objective, establishing a measuring methodology then providing the time and support to get results. Again I believe what is currently happening with John Kanzius can provide an example.

    Another poster made a point regarding Phil English’s involvement in getting federal investment in the Kanzius project, and went on to point out that historically we have not been on the receiving end of that kind of federal, or state for that matter, investing. I submit we need to not only support that investment and project, but in addition learn from it how to spread that process to other opportunities. To do that, we need to dedicate skilled resources into identifying what some of those opportunities are, and go after them, from a standpoint of knowing what needs to happen to attract and maintain momentum.

    LECOM is another example of a plan that worked, without a lot of community planning involvement, or marketing. Again there are lessons that can be learned about building a market for a product. On the downside, however, has been the disappointing medical practice environment in Pennsylvania. While a number of LECOM graduates have remained in the area, Hamot, and I assume St. Vincent, still experience difficulties in recruiting medical professionals to relocate to Erie from other areas and states with better medical business climates. It gets back to my oft repeated comment about addressing the costs of doing business, and a need to reduce the rate of increase in those costs as part of our planning.

    Its not so much that I oppose the quality of life marketing efforts, they have already been committed to. I just wish other areas would receive the same degree of attention, and I believe some of those areas have a higher potential economic impact.

    High speed rail development is one area I’d be interested in hearing more about locally, as well as other non air related public transportation options. We have engineering capability within the community for transportation initiatives, and Amtrak is currently illustrating there is a growing market for that kind of service, setting passenger records.

19. George Vietze
    August 27th, 2008 at 12:56 pm

    Good post Jim, certainly the Cancer Institute and the resulting manufacturing and other services that will benefit from John Kanzius’ project will be a boom for the area’s economy and perception.

    I do not know all the constraints of why the medical profession’s cost of doing business and other political reasons of doing business in Erie, Pa. but I did have the opportunity of speaking with a medical recuiter who mentioned that one challange was convincing the wives of doctors
    to relocate to Erie, that is one of the reasons I support the investment in lifestyle because it goes hand and hand with attracting residence and business.

    High speed rail looks as if it could have a great deal of appeal but people are going to have to want to travel back and forth and visit the Erie area. I believe those types of projects are very viable over time as this area develops its assets.

    We truly are moving in the right direction!

20. Jim
    August 27th, 2008 at 1:26 pm

    Quality of life issues are not the problem with physician recruiting. It is the business climate, and population mix, that makes establishing a practice here much more difficult than in other areas of the country. The high costs, like Pennsylvania’s high malpractice insurance rates, coupled with low provider reimbursement rates, and higher than average percentage of medical assistance patients, where the reimbursement often doesn’t cover the cost of services, is the problem. A young medical school graduate with maybe $100,000.00 in student loan debt, cannot financially afford the costs associated with starting a practice that is so below average in reimbursements, while still servicing his education debt. This is especially true of board certified sub-specialties.

    In attempting to recruit established physicians to relocate, they look at the business climate from the standpoint of the patient demographics and reimbursement rates, and find it simply doesn’t make business sense to locate here. It is one of the reasons why our medical delivery system is graying at a faster rate than other areas of our local economy.