Outside Erie

10 Responses to “Your Predictions for 2008”

1. Rob
   January 1st, 2008 at 4:41 pm

   I think that the biggest news for Erie in 2007 has to be the airport runway extension. It is something that should have been completed long ago, but I, for one, am glad to see it finally go through.

   Many people complain that it is not needed because the German cargo deal fell through, as well as the decline in commercial air service to Erie. However, I feel that the reason that those two things happened/are happening are because of the short runway. With the longer runway, it is one less excuse for commercial airlines to cut service to Erie. It would also increase the chances for Erie to serve markets that the airport has tried to get, but have been unable to do so in the past.

   So while this news won’t have any direct impact in the next several years, once it is completed, I remain optimistic that there will be many positive developments for Erie.

2. Jim
   January 2nd, 2008 at 3:05 pm

   With this morning’s ISM report on manufacturing showing a decline in activity for the first time in months, and coupled with oil hitting $100.00 a bbl for the first time, I predict we will see further slowing of the economy, and since Erie never recovers at the national or state rate, this is bad news for Erie.

   I predict that we will be further hampered by yet another round of public spending proposals which will only serve to increase the overall cost of government, putting us at an even more competitive disadvantage. IE: Community college, additional bay front development.

   I also predict that currently proposed subsidy levels for such things as the convention center will need increased as the operating loses will be greater than so far indicated.

   I predict that the national credit crises will hit Erie even harder than it has to date, making local private financing of economic development project even more dependent upon public financing.

   I predict that the gaming revenue distribution will become a fiasco, not only because of the pending Summit suit, but also because of county assets which will be ignored in their funding requests. It will end up being viewed as a city asset bail out. I also predict that it creates a 50/50 shot at further delays on the airport runway project, which may lead to scaling the project back to just the safety requirements.

   I predict that no progress will be made in getting city labor cost centers under control through negotiations. The fire and police unions will continue to refuse to put the good of the community fiscal health ahead of their own needs.

   I predict that due to a continuing dispute with the state over pension reimbursements caused by the current DROP program arrangement, and the down turn in the economy that the end of 2008 will present the city with a fiscal crises that will make it difficult to avoid Act 47.

   I predict that unemployment will continue to exceed state and national averages, while at the same time total employment continues to decline. I predict that the area will not only continue to lag state and national wage amounts, but that the spread will actually increase.

   I predict that due to increasing numbers of people receiving medical care through public medical assistance, with their small reimbursements, that recruitment of medical professionals to the Erie area will become even more difficult, leading to a loss of certain services in the Erie area, requiring more out of Erie referrals. Those medical providers left will see further squeezing of their budgets, meaning even fewer independent private practices by the end of the year.

3. Peter Panepento
   January 2nd, 2008 at 3:16 pm

   Wow, Jim.

   Is there any good news on the horizon, at all? Or should we just pack it in now?

4. Rob
   January 2nd, 2008 at 5:02 pm

   I agree Peter.

   Certainly there will be bad news in 2008 - as there is in all places every year. However, I can promise that 2008 will also bring good news, perhaps in areas that nobody can yet predict.

5. Jim
   January 3rd, 2008 at 8:25 am

   I feel relatively certain that if a series of programs were announced to right the communities fiscal ship, and provide say several hundred family sustaining jobs, it would be immediately opposed, and unable to secure local financing.

   Heck, we can’t even support the addition of a bank on the bay front.

6. Jim
   January 3rd, 2008 at 4:52 pm

   I think Shriner’s announced layoff’s today speak to the inability to recruit medical professionals to come to this area, and the economic impact that recruitment problem has on others. How much wage tax was just lost as a result?

7. Debie
   January 3rd, 2008 at 5:45 pm

   Although Jim’s comments seem to portend all gloom and doom, I think they are a reflection of the feelings that many Erieites share - but who never speak up.

   I believe that the building of a convention center is a great step forward; HOWEVER, as usual, Erie has put the cart before the horse has even been born. In a previous career, I traveled 3-4 times per year to week-long conferences almost always held at convention centers. Many were in many cities like Boston, Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago and Minneapolis, but many were also in smaller cities like Cincinnati, Columbus, Long Beach and Nashville. The one thing that all had in common, regardless of their size? THINGS TO DO/GO TO within walking distance of the conference facilities.

   Erie has NO supporting infrastructure, i.e. bistros, coffee houses, galleries, downtown shopping to support anything more than small regional day-long conferences. In turn, there is no downtown activity. Keep in mind, not everyone wants to drink all night, especially in smoke-choked bars. I give great kudos to folks like Perry Wood, Tammy Roche, Tina Mengine, etc. who have and are trying to build up the downtown, but lets be REAL, there is no heartbeat in downtown Erie (or greater Erie in general). All of the conferences I attended had major opening events/parties in cool places like museums, underground shopping/entertainment centers, music clubs and even the deck of a historic cruise ship. What does Erie have to offer except the Niagara and the Warner? Yes, we have a museum and some cute little galleries, but big picture, NOTHING.

   If Erie is serious - and I mean SERIOUS - not the lip-service offered up for 50 plus years, then progessive and forward thinking folks like Jessica Huran-Kunco, Ruby Jenkins-Husband, Paul DiFuccia, Perry Woods and Jake Rouch will be listened to and allowed to move forward with the planning and development so desperately needed. Forget silly things like banks and parking garages on the Bayfront that do NOTHING for development and are useless in the bigger picture. Erie needs to develop its Bayfront to look like New York’s South Street Seaport, Pittsburgh’s riverfront or Charleston’s historic downtown. Need I remind everyone of the Waterfront restaurant?

   Brain drain, inability to retain/recruit doctors and other professionals and lack of foreign and domestic investment is because of the lack of quality of living, meaningful things to do, ridiculous bureaucracy and slow progress and a heartbeat. If you consider a teeny-bopper mall, additional Wal-Marts and suburban growth quality living, keep it up and continue to watch Erie die a slow and painful death. The potential is more than there, but like a forgotten tomato, it will wither and die on the vine if left unattended.

   I would rather be frank and honest about Erie’s future than sound like the myriad of pinheads who continue to repeat the same mantra I have heard since the day I was born about Erie and its great future. If all the talk were true, I would still be in Erie instead of having left in order to find employment. It is not too late to right the ship, but time is running out.

8. Debbie
   January 3rd, 2008 at 5:46 pm

   Oh, it’s Debbie (see typo above)…obviously I can’t type my own name!

9. Jim
   January 4th, 2008 at 4:54 pm

   Debbie, I have to agree with you. I too, attend a number of conferences around the country and completely agree with your assessment of the convention center. I have concerns too, about those same lacks having a negative impact on vendors, and those can be the kiss of death to conventions needing vendor support to make them financially viable. If the vendors don’t like a facility because of the isolation, and opt out of coming, that is the fastest way I know of causing a function to move. Especially those on regular rotations.

   Las Vegas made a cottage industry of stealing trade shows from Chicago, due to vendor complaints about the high handed unions at McCormick Place. The attendees opinions of Chicago didn’t matter in the relocation decisions. This was pointed out to Erie decision makers, and immediately ignored. Unfortunately, a couple of the more vocal ones in ignoring the comments, had no experience in attending national, or even regional conferences on a regular basis, to have the experience necessary to understand how out of touch his comments were. However, he was networked, and his opinion seemed to prevail, whether is was his, or he was just repeating another’s view.

   The second person I talked with, agreed with the premise I was making, but indicated that it didn’t matter in Erie, because we were going after a different market, where those things were not as important.

10. George Vietze
    January 7th, 2008 at 3:53 pm

    There is no PERFECT STORM for Erie. Having just moved to the Erie area just over a year ago, I do not feel I have enough local knowledge to have the standing that some of you that have been in the area for years have but I do have some experience with long range planning in Phoenix and Scottsdale and have watched cities like San Diego grow.

    Erie NOW has GE, with over 4,000 employees and a long term future in Erie. Seems like GE is interested in the long term future of Erie and is planning to help educate local people in science and math and help maintain and build that future in Erie.

    Erie NOW has the casino and race track that have invested HUNDRED OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS in Erie, partly because Erie NOW has over 4,000 hotel rooms and counting, and local attractions such as Presque Isle Beaches, Family Sports Park, Splash Lagoon,i.e. things for its patrons to do to keep them in Erie longer.

    GE is scheduled to have its annual meeting THIS SPRING, not exactly NOW, but SOON, this will bring more exposure to Erie. The convention center is brand new, the new hotels when completed will help and the casino/race track will help some also. The Bayfront is also in Erie NOW and is a great asset they needs to be marketed.

    If we can agree that Erie has enough synergism to attract what is here NOW, which for a town Erie’s size is significant but not only do you have in Erie the above assets you have EASY ACCESS with direct highways connecting major populations. One of the web sites that promote Erie says that ERIE IS WITHIN 50% OF THE POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES. To me that was mind boggling. The airport situation is and was a MAJOR limiting factor but if that is resolved it will further increase the access to Erie.

    The aforementioned is great but without a political climate that promotes proper growth and planning not much will happen. The lack of that policy created the opportunities NOW. It looks as if the political climate has slightly to moderately improved. That being the case,
    it is time for LONG RANGE PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION.
    Not only does everyone not want everyone in the world to move to Erie, every body in the world does not want to move to Erie. That gives us a chance to plan for the people who want to move the Erie area and will move to the area. The prior writings speak of the viability of the convention center and made some very good comments based upon their experiece and I agree with a lot of those comments. The downtown area and the bayfront area need to be improved to help the convention center attract the kind of conventions that will bring quality to Erie.
    Erie has a lot of assets currently.

    Erie has over 4,000 hotel rooms, the casino/race track will have a full season of racing for the first time in 2008, Major trainers and horse farms have now heard that Erie has PURSES in the same class as the large California tracks and the large eastern tracks. That MONEY will bring better horses to Erie than has been here in the past
    and with off-track betting all over the country, not just in Erie, the track is ACCESSIBLE to millions of people.
    The track and casino has gross revenue in the BILLIONS OF DOLLARS (B LIKE IN BILLION)and more to come. Buses come from Ohio, New York, and Canada. The Canadian dollar has not been this strong in a long time and is attracting a lot of money to Erie to shop, gamble and enjoy the assets in Erie. This is not going to be unnoticed and it will lead to more SYNERGISM. Erie will not explode with development but it will grow. I hope Erie will PLAN for the growth to maintain the quality of that development.
    Erie is certainly under marketed but if Erie recognizes what is here NOW and implements a plan of development the quality of life will be better than if it just happens.

    I recognize the practical limitations with the politics and finances etc., but start small with our EXISTING ASSETS. A comprehensive downtown master plan, up-grading the Tulio Center,ball park, downtown entertainment district, State Street etc.,. The Bayfront Comprehensive Master plan development if properly marketed and implemented will expose Erie to major developers and development. Exlore the potential of full gaming and if the prospects are practical, plan ahead for it.

    Peach Street is going to grow. What happened to architectural controls, sign ordinances, water and sewer master plans, improvement districts to allow infrastructure to grow. Erie will grow but will it GROW UP and plan and do the things that will make the inevitable changes BETTER FOR ERIE AND THE SURROUNDING AREA.

    George Vietze